Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:30

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-112.3%0-26.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-17.4%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 38.5% 2.60 +5.0%

Draw 29.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.9%

Away win 30.4% 37.0% 2.70 -17.9%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 26.7% 3.75 -2.4%

BTTS 49.1% 56.5% 1.77 -13.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 39.2% 2.55 -22.0%

Away O1.5 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0✓ 12.2%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju United FC1.1

Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.31

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeju United FC (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +5.0%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.9%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju United FC face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju United FC a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30%, so Jeju United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jeju United FC and 1.0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju United FC are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.25 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. This match finished 0-0.

Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions