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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:15

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kawasaki Frontale

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDW ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.0%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-19.9%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Draw 22.2% 24.4% 4.10 -5.4%

Away win 21.9% 22.2% 4.50 -0.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 32.0% 39.2% 2.55 -18.4%

BTTS 53.0% 62.5% 1.60 -15.2%

Home O1.5 55.3% 62.5% 1.60 -11.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 33.9% 2.95 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.9%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.0

Kawasaki Frontale0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA · PPG 1.91

KAWASAKI FRONTALE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -6.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.4%

Kawasaki Frontale (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanfrecce Hiroshima face Kawasaki Frontale in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Kawasaki Frontale 22%, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.9 for Kawasaki Frontale (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanfrecce Hiroshima are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.20 for Kawasaki Frontale. This match finished 1-1.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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