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Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Cerezo Osaka

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Shimizu S-pulse

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.6%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.2%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 44.4% 2.25 -5.5%

Draw 28.6% 29.0% 3.45 -0.8%

Away win 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.6% 1.83 -21.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 33.3% 3.00 -22.9%

BTTS 47.6% 61.7% 1.62 -22.9%

Home O1.5 35.2% 47.6% 2.10 -26.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 39.2% 2.55 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0✓ 13.9%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerezo Osaka1.2

Shimizu S-pulse0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CEREZO OSAKA · PPG 1.70

SHIMIZU S-PULSE · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerezo Osaka (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.5%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.8%

Shimizu S-pulse (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerezo Osaka face Shimizu S-pulse in Japan - J1 League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Shimizu S-pulse 29%, so Cerezo Osaka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cerezo Osaka and 0.9 for Shimizu S-pulse (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerezo Osaka are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.48 for Shimizu S-pulse. This match finished 1-0.

Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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