Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / MetroStars vs Croydon Kings

MetroStars vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 09:30

MetroStars

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.91 vs 1.36 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.1%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.9%1-23.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.5%2-18.4%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-111.2%4+-27.2%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.1% — — —

Draw 17.7% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 71.4% — — —

Away O1.5 37.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–0✓ 6.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MetroStars2.8

Croydon Kings1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

METROSTARS · PPG 1.91

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.91 vs 1.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

MetroStars (H) 62.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MetroStars face Croydon Kings in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MetroStars a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Croydon Kings 20%, so MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for MetroStars and 1.3 for Croydon Kings (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MetroStars are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.36 for Croydon Kings. This match finished 2-0.

MetroStars vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL South Australia Predictions