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Bankstown City Lions vs Prospect United Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Bankstown City Lions

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Prospect United

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.2%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.1%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 69.4% 1.44 -23.8%

Draw 22.7% 22.2% 4.50 +1.3%

Away win 24.4% 20.8% 4.80 +10.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 46.5% 2.15 -21.3%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 71.9% 1.39 -23.7%

Away O1.5 34.7% 33.6% 2.98 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bankstown City Lions2.0

Prospect United1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BANKSTOWN CITY LIONS · PPG 1.86

PROSPECT UNITED · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bankstown City Lions (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +1.3%

Prospect United (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bankstown City Lions face Prospect United in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bankstown City Lions a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Prospect United 24%, so Bankstown City Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bankstown City Lions and 1.1 for Prospect United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bankstown City Lions are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Prospect United. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 5-1.

Bankstown City Lions vs Prospect United Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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