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Hills Brumbies vs Rydalmere Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Hills Brumbies

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rydalmere Lions

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.8%0-24.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.4%1-111.2%1-27.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.8%3-15.0%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 57.1% 1.75 -16.9%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 29.0% 27.8% 3.60 +2.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 43.3% 2.31 -15.4%

BTTS 60.3% 64.5% 1.55 -6.5%

Home O1.5 47.4% 62.1% 1.61 -23.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 39.4% 2.54 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hills Brumbies1.6

Rydalmere Lions1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLS BRUMBIES · PPG 1.54

RYDALMERE LIONS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hills Brumbies (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -16.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

Rydalmere Lions (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hills Brumbies face Rydalmere Lions in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hills Brumbies a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Rydalmere Lions 29%, so Hills Brumbies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hills Brumbies and 1.3 for Rydalmere Lions (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hills Brumbies are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.50 for Rydalmere Lions. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Hills Brumbies vs Rydalmere Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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