Today / Mexico - Liga MX Femenil / Monterrey W vs León W

Monterrey W vs León W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 03:00

Monterrey W

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

León W

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.4%1-16.8%1-24.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-18.9%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.3%3-17.8%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-19.7%4+-26.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 80.0% 1.25 -27.5%

Draw 20.1% 17.4% 5.75 +9.3%

Away win 21.9% 9.3% 10.75 +81.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 47.1% 50.0% 2.00 -5.8%

BTTS 63.2% 58.8% 1.70 +7.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 80.0% 1.25 -18.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 25.0% 4.00 +49.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterrey W2.6

León W1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTERREY W · PPG 2.18

LEÓN W · PPG 1.58

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Monterrey W (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -27.5%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +9.3%

León W (A) 21.9%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +81.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterrey W face León W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterrey W a 58% chance, the draw 20% and León W 22%, so Monterrey W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Monterrey W and 1.3 for León W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterrey W are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.58 for León W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Monterrey W vs León W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Femenil Predictions