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Pumas UNAM W vs Querétaro W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 23:00

Pumas UNAM W

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Querétaro W

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.6%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.6%1-18.3%1-25.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.2%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-17.1%4+-24.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 82.6% 1.21 -35.9%

Draw 22.5% 18.5% 5.40 +12.9%

Away win 24.5% 6.3% 16.00 +175.2%

Over 2.5 65.2% 64.5% 1.55 +1.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 43.5% 2.30 +0.1%

BTTS 63.1% 48.8% 2.05 +29.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 76.9% 1.30 -15.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 16.0% 6.25 +133.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 5.2%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pumas UNAM W2.3

Querétaro W1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PUMAS UNAM W · PPG 1.36

QUERÉTARO W · PPG 0.94

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pumas UNAM W (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -35.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +12.9%

Querétaro W (A) 24.5%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +175.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pumas UNAM W face Querétaro W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pumas UNAM W a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Querétaro W 25%, so Pumas UNAM W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Pumas UNAM W and 1.3 for Querétaro W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pumas UNAM W are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.94 for Querétaro W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +164.3%. This match finished 5-0.

Pumas UNAM W vs Querétaro W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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