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Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 23:00

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

PPG 0.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

San Lorenzo

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.9%0-122.3%0-28.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-110.5%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-03.2%2-12.5%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.5%3-10.4%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 33.8% 2.96 -14.9%

Draw 37.5% 35.7% 2.80 +5.0%

Away win 37.1% 37.6% 2.66 -1.3%

Over 2.5 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Over 3.5 12.4% 16.0% 6.25 -13.5%

BTTS 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Home O1.5 28.6% 27.4% 3.65 +2.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 30.3% 3.30 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob35.0%

A 37% / xG 0.5-0.8 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 28.9%

#2 0–1 22.3%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0.5

San Lorenzo0.8

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO · PPG 0.73

SAN LORENZO · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 1.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -14.9%

Draw 37.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +5.0%

San Lorenzo (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto face San Lorenzo in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto a 25% chance, the draw 38% and San Lorenzo 37%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 0.8 for San Lorenzo (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 1.09 for San Lorenzo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs San Lorenzo Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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