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Deportivo Laferrere vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Laferrere

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-117.4%0-210.7%0-34.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.6%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-03.7%2-14.6%2-22.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.1%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 36.4% 2.75 -17.3%

Draw 28.5% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Away win 45.6% 39.2% 2.55 +16.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 37.0% 2.70 +18.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 18.2% 5.50 +24.5%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 31.3% 3.20 -2.1%

Away O1.5 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.6%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.4%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–2✓ 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Laferrere0.7

Villa Dalmine1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE · PPG 1.33

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.87

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Laferrere (H) 25.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.3%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Villa Dalmine (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Laferrere face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Laferrere a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Villa Dalmine 46%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Deportivo Laferrere and 1.2 for Villa Dalmine (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Laferrere are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.87 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Deportivo Laferrere vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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