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Brown DE Adrogue vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 22:00

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.5%0-116.0%0-24.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.1%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-14.2%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 48.8% 2.05 -27.0%

Draw 36.9% 33.3% 3.00 +10.7%

Away win 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -1.4%

Over 2.5 32.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.6%

Over 3.5 12.5% 18.2% 5.50 -18.8%

BTTS 43.0% 45.5% 2.20 -5.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 39.2% 2.55 -22.0%

Away O1.5 16.5% 25.0% 4.00 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.0%

D 37% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.5%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–1✓ 11.6%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brown DE Adrogue0.7

UAI Urquiza0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 1.07

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.87

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 1.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brown DE Adrogue (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.0%

Draw 36.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +10.7%

UAI Urquiza (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brown DE Adrogue face UAI Urquiza in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brown DE Adrogue a 36% chance, the draw 37% and UAI Urquiza 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Brown DE Adrogue and 0.6 for UAI Urquiza (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brown DE Adrogue are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.87 for UAI Urquiza. This match finished 1-1.

Brown DE Adrogue vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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