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West Brom vs Watford Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 44 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

West Brom

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Watford

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.8%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.1%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 55.2% 1.81 -24.7%

Draw 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.9%

Away win 29.7% 23.8% 4.20 +24.7%

Over 2.5 38.3% 50.0% 2.00 -23.4%

Over 3.5 18.5% 28.2% 3.55 -34.3%

BTTS 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.5%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Brom1.2

Watford1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST BROM · PPG 1.43

WATFORD · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

West Brom (H) 41.6%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -24.7%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.9%

Watford (A) 29.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Brom face Watford in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Brom a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Watford 30%, so West Brom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for West Brom and 1.0 for Watford (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Brom are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.95 for Watford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 3-0.

West Brom vs Watford Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions