Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 44 Bet365 Stadium· Stoke on Trent Tuesday, April 21, 2026 18:45

Stoke City PPG 1.57

1-3 MISS

Millwall PPG 1.76

Home· +53.4% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City face Millwall in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Millwall 30%, so Stoke City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Stoke City and 1.0 for Millwall (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.76 for Millwall. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.9%

Odds: 3.75 EV: +53.4%

Draw 29.1%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +6.2%

Away 30.0%

Odds: 1.89 EV: -43.3%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.1% Odds: 1.85 -31.4%

Over 3.5 17.6% Odds: 3.10 -45.4%

BTTS 43.6% Odds: 1.73 -24.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stoke City

1.20

Millwall

0.98

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.76)