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Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 44 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Stoke City

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Millwall

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-111.1%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-18.0%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 26.7% 3.75 +53.4%

Draw 29.1% 27.4% 3.65 +6.2%

Away win 30.0% 52.9% 1.89 -43.3%

Over 2.5 37.1% 54.1% 1.85 -31.4%

Over 3.5 17.6% 32.3% 3.10 -45.4%

BTTS 43.6% 57.8% 1.73 -24.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stoke City1.2

Millwall1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.57

MILLWALL · PPG 1.76

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Stoke City (H) 40.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +53.4%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +6.2%

Millwall (A) 30.0%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -43.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City face Millwall in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Millwall 30%, so Stoke City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Stoke City and 1.0 for Millwall (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.76 for Millwall. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions