Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 44 St. Mary's Stadium· Southampton Tuesday, April 21, 2026 18:45

Southampton PPG 2.00

2-2 MISS

Bristol City PPG 1.43

Away· +16.1% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Bristol City in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Bristol City 16%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Southampton and 0.9 for Bristol City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Bristol City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.4%

Odds: 1.43 EV: -9.3%

Draw 20.7%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -10.4%

Away 15.9%

Odds: 7.30 EV: +16.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.6% Odds: 1.65 -8.3%

Over 3.5 33.2% Odds: 2.60 -13.7%

BTTS 51.2% Odds: 1.80 -7.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Southampton

2.01

Bristol City

0.89

Model SuggestionHome -9.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -9.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)