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Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 44 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Southampton

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bristol City

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-19.8%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 69.9% 1.43 -9.3%

Draw 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -10.4%

Away win 15.9% 13.7% 7.30 +16.1%

Over 2.5 55.6% 60.6% 1.65 -8.3%

Over 3.5 33.2% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

BTTS 51.2% 55.6% 1.80 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.2%

H 63% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southampton2.0

Bristol City0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 2.00

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Southampton (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.43 · IMPLIED 69.9% EV -9.3%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -10.4%

Bristol City (A) 15.9%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Bristol City in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Bristol City 16%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Southampton and 0.9 for Bristol City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Bristol City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Southampton vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions