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Comunicaciones vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 31 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:30

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-115.3%0-28.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.4%2-15.9%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.7%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 36.4% 2.75 -13.8%

Draw 28.1% 33.9% 2.95 -10.3%

Away win 43.9% 40.0% 2.50 +9.8%

Over 2.5 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 23.1% 4.33 -6.5%

BTTS 46.0% 51.8% 1.93 -11.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Away O1.5 35.3% 37.0% 2.70 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.0%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0✓ 12.3%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comunicaciones0.9

Sportivo Italiano1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.27

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.87

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Comunicaciones (H) 28.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.8%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.3%

Sportivo Italiano (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comunicaciones face Sportivo Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comunicaciones a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Sportivo Italiano 44%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Comunicaciones and 1.1 for Sportivo Italiano (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comunicaciones are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.87 for Sportivo Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Comunicaciones vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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