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Oxford Utd vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 44 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Oxford Utd

PPG 1.24 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Wrexham

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.9%0-26.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.6%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.7%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 38.2% 2.62 -7.5%

Draw 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.6%

Away win 37.2% 38.2% 2.62 -2.5%

Over 2.5 43.5% 47.6% 2.10 -8.6%

Over 3.5 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -14.5%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1✓ 10.9%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oxford Utd1.2

Wrexham1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OXFORD UTD · PPG 1.24

WREXHAM · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.48)

Win probability 1X2

Oxford Utd (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.6%

Wrexham (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oxford Utd face Wrexham in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oxford Utd a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Wrexham 37%, so Wrexham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Oxford Utd and 1.2 for Wrexham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oxford Utd are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.48 for Wrexham. This match finished 0-1.

Oxford Utd vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions