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Norwich City vs Derby County Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 44 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 18:45

Norwich City

PPG 1.24 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Derby County

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.9%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.3%1-112.1%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 49.5% 2.02 -8.1%

Draw 25.4% 29.0% 3.45 -12.4%

Away win 29.1% 28.6% 3.50 +1.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

BTTS 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 10.3%

#3 2–1✓ 9.2%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norwich City1.5

Derby County1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORWICH CITY · PPG 1.24

DERBY COUNTY · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Norwich City (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -8.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.4%

Derby County (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norwich City face Derby County in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norwich City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Derby County 29%, so Norwich City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Norwich City and 1.2 for Derby County (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norwich City are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.43 for Derby County. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Norwich City vs Derby County Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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