Norwich City vs Derby County Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 44 Carrow Road· Norwich Tuesday, April 21, 2026 18:45

Norwich City PPG 1.24

2-1 HIT CS3

Derby County PPG 1.43

Away· +1.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Norwich City face Derby County in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norwich City a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Derby County 29%, so Norwich City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Norwich City and 1.2 for Derby County (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norwich City are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.43 for Derby County. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.5%

Odds: 2.02 EV: -8.1%

Draw 25.4%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -12.4%

Away 29.1%

Odds: 3.50 EV: +1.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.5% Odds: 1.83 -7.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% Odds: 3.00 -14.8%

BTTS 53.9% Odds: 1.67 -10.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Norwich City

1.52

Derby County

1.17

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+1.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.43)