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Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

Aldosivi

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

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1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Union Santa Fe

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 47.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-115.6%0-28.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.0%1-113.3%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.1%2-15.7%2-23.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.5%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 28.2% 3.55 +9.0%

Draw 30.8% 34.2% 2.92 -10.1%

Away win 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.2% 2.62 +11.9%

Over 3.5 20.6% 19.0% 5.25 +4.9%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.3% 3.80 +16.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 37.7% 2.65 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldosivi0.9

Union Santa Fe1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.80

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 0.92

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aldosivi (H) 30.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +9.0%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -10.1%

Union Santa Fe (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldosivi face Union Santa Fe in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldosivi a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Union Santa Fe 39%, so Union Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Aldosivi and 1.1 for Union Santa Fe (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldosivi are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.92 for Union Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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