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Vänersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:15

Vänersborgs FK

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

IFK Skövde

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.5%0-27.2%0-35.4%0-4+5.1%1 1-03.8%1-18.5%1-29.5%1-37.0%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.5%2-15.5%2-26.2%2-34.6%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.1%3-12.4%3-22.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 26.0% 3.85 -4.8%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -9.7%

Away win 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Over 2.5 64.7% 67.6% 1.48 -4.2%

Over 3.5 43.5% 45.5% 2.20 -4.3%

BTTS 61.9% 67.6% 1.48 -8.4%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Away O1.5 65.4% 64.5% 1.55 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.9%

A 55% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 1–3 7.0%

#5 2–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vänersborgs FK1.3

IFK Skövde2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄNERSBORGS FK · PPG 1.12

IFK SKÖVDE · PPG 2.12

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vänersborgs FK (H) 23.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.7%

IFK Skövde (A) 54.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vänersborgs FK face IFK Skövde in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vänersborgs FK a 24% chance, the draw 22% and IFK Skövde 55%, so IFK Skövde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vänersborgs FK and 2.2 for IFK Skövde (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vänersborgs FK are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 2.12 for IFK Skövde. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Vänersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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