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Herrestads vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Herrestads

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vänersborgs IF

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.1%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.9%1-13.8%1-22.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.9%2-16.6%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-17.6%3-25.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-116.0%4+-210.7%4+-34.8%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 65.4% 1.53 +4.0%

Draw 16.2% 22.7% 4.40 -17.2%

Away win 15.9% 21.1% 4.75 -14.7%

Over 2.5 76.0% 76.9% 1.30 -1.2%

Over 3.5 55.5% 56.5% 1.77 -1.8%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 78.4% 75.2% 1.33 +4.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 43.5% 2.30 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 68% / xG 3.5-1.3 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 2–2 4.4%

#5 1–1 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrestads3.5

Vänersborgs IF1.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRESTADS · PPG 1.75

VÄNERSBORGS IF · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.12 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Herrestads (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +4.0%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -17.2%

Vänersborgs IF (A) 15.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrestads face Vänersborgs IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrestads a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Vänersborgs IF 16%, so Herrestads are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Herrestads and 1.3 for Vänersborgs IF (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrestads are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Vänersborgs IF. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Herrestads vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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