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Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:35

Al Nasr

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Wahda FC

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.6%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.2%1-112.1%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 31.7% 3.15 +22.2%

Draw 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -5.1%

Away win 34.6% 48.1% 2.08 -28.0%

Over 2.5 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 40.8% 2.45 -2.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0✓ 9.2%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nasr1.4

Al Wahda FC1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASR · PPG 1.35

AL WAHDA FC · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Nasr (H) 38.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +22.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.1%

Al Wahda FC (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nasr face Al Wahda FC in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nasr a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Al Wahda FC 35%, so Al Nasr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Nasr and 1.3 for Al Wahda FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nasr are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.42 for Al Wahda FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Nasr vs Al Wahda FC Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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