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Lidköping vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:30

Lidköping

PPG 0.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Ahlafors

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-18.6%0-210.1%0-37.9%0-4+8.0%1 1-03.5%1-18.3%1-29.7%1-37.6%1-4+7.7%2 2-01.7%2-14.0%2-24.6%2-33.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.5%3-31.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 25.3% 3.95 -27.3%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 63.8% 59.9% 1.67 +6.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

BTTS 53.0% 69.0% 1.45 -23.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Away O1.5 65.4% 66.7% 1.50 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -5.6%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 64% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 0–2 10.1%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–3 7.9%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidköping1.0

Ahlafors2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDKÖPING · PPG 0.14

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.39 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lidköping (H) 13.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -27.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Ahlafors (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidköping face Ahlafors in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidköping a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Ahlafors 64%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lidköping and 2.3 for Ahlafors (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidköping are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 1.75 for Ahlafors. This match finished 2-2.

Lidköping vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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