Today / Japan - J1 League / FC Tokyo vs JEF United Chiba

FC Tokyo vs JEF United Chiba Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:30

FC Tokyo

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

JEF United Chiba

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.2%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-19.0%1-25.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.1%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.4%4+-23.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 66.7% 1.50 -18.7%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 23.5% 16.0% 6.25 +28.1%

Over 2.5 63.0% 54.1% 1.85 +16.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 30.8% 3.25 +28.1%

BTTS 61.3% 51.3% 1.95 +19.5%

Home O1.5 64.1% 60.6% 1.65 +5.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 22.2% 4.50 +60.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.5%

#4 1–2 5.2%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tokyo2.2

JEF United Chiba1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TOKYO · PPG 1.25

JEF UNITED CHIBA · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Tokyo (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

JEF United Chiba (A) 23.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tokyo face JEF United Chiba in Japan - J1 League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tokyo a 54% chance, the draw 22% and JEF United Chiba 24%, so FC Tokyo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Tokyo and 1.1 for JEF United Chiba (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tokyo are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.71 for JEF United Chiba. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +60.2%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Tokyo vs JEF United Chiba Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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