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Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:15

Blacktown Spartans

PPG 2.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Hurstville FC

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.3%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.1%1-16.4%1-23.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.1%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-111.0%4+-25.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% 66.7% 1.50 +2.5%

Draw 16.3% 25.0% 4.00 -20.9%

Away win 15.4% 21.7% 4.60 -17.5%

Over 2.5 66.8% 73.5% 1.36 -9.2%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.4% 1.91 -16.9%

BTTS 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Home O1.5 65.5% 73.0% 1.37 -10.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.3% 2.68 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 68% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.7%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown Spartans2.8

Hurstville FC1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN SPARTANS · PPG 2.64

HURSTVILLE FC · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 2.64 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown Spartans (H) 68.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -20.9%

Hurstville FC (A) 15.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown Spartans face Hurstville FC in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown Spartans a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Hurstville FC 15%, so Blacktown Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Blacktown Spartans and 1.1 for Hurstville FC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown Spartans are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.85 for Hurstville FC. This match finished 6-2.

Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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