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Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:00

Kashiwa Reysol

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

V-varen Nagasaki

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.6%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.0%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 59.9% 1.67 -16.2%

Draw 25.8% 26.0% 3.85 -0.4%

Away win 24.0% 21.1% 4.75 +8.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

Away O1.5 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kashiwa Reysol1.6

V-varen Nagasaki1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KASHIWA REYSOL · PPG 1.59

V-VAREN NAGASAKI · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kashiwa Reysol (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -16.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.4%

V-varen Nagasaki (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kashiwa Reysol face V-varen Nagasaki in Japan - J1 League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 50% chance, the draw 26% and V-varen Nagasaki 24%, so Kashiwa Reysol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.0 for V-varen Nagasaki (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kashiwa Reysol are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.09 for V-varen Nagasaki. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 4-2.

Kashiwa Reysol vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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