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Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.3%0-27.6%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.0%1-111.5%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.3%2-17.1%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.9%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 45.9% 2.18 -24.3%

Draw 24.1% 25.0% 4.00 -2.2%

Away win 41.3% 36.0% 2.78 +14.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 71.4% 1.40 -24.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 50.0% 2.00 -36.8%

BTTS 54.7% 74.1% 1.35 -26.2%

Home O1.5 33.4% 58.8% 1.70 -43.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.7%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 7.1%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles Galaxy1.2

San Jose Earthquakes1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.00

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles Galaxy (H) 34.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -24.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.2%

San Jose Earthquakes (A) 41.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles Galaxy face San Jose Earthquakes in USA - MLS on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 35% chance, the draw 24% and San Jose Earthquakes 41%, so San Jose Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.6 for San Jose Earthquakes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles Galaxy are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.38 for San Jose Earthquakes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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