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Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 01:30

Real Salt Lake

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLL

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Dallas

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.9%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.4%1-110.6%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.5%3-15.8%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 51.8% 1.93 -9.5%

Draw 24.3% 25.6% 3.90 -3.1%

Away win 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

Over 2.5 56.9% 66.7% 1.50 -14.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

BTTS 54.7% 69.0% 1.45 -20.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% 59.9% 1.67 -18.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Salt Lake1.8

FC Dallas1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 2.44

FC DALLAS · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Salt Lake (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -9.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.1%

FC Dallas (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Salt Lake face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Salt Lake a 47% chance, the draw 24% and FC Dallas 29%, so Real Salt Lake are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Real Salt Lake and 1.3 for FC Dallas (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Salt Lake are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.70 for FC Dallas. This match finished 3-4.

Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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