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Seattle Sounders vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 01:30

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Austin

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.3%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.4%1-19.2%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.1%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 55.2% 1.81 +1.2%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -10.1%

Away win 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 62.2% 58.8% 1.70 +5.7%

Away O1.5 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2✓ 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Sounders2.2

Austin1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.62

AUSTIN · PPG 0.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Sounders (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +1.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.1%

Austin (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Sounders face Austin in USA - MLS on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Sounders a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Austin 22%, so Seattle Sounders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Seattle Sounders and 1.0 for Austin (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Sounders are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.30 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Seattle Sounders vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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