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Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 00:00

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

St. Louis City

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.2%0-27.7%0-34.3%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.8%1-111.3%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.2%2-17.0%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 27.0% 3.70 +1.5%

Draw 22.9% 26.0% 3.85 -7.1%

Away win 49.5% 54.3% 1.84 -8.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 64.5% 1.55 -16.4%

Over 3.5 33.5% 42.6% 2.35 -21.3%

BTTS 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 40.8% 2.45 -18.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 60.6% 1.65 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.7%

A 50% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Kansas City1.2

St. Louis City1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.89

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Kansas City (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.1%

St. Louis City (A) 49.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Kansas City face St. Louis City in USA - MLS on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Kansas City a 28% chance, the draw 23% and St. Louis City 50%, so St. Louis City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.7 for St. Louis City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Kansas City are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.20 for St. Louis City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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