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DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

New England Revolution

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.6%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.2%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.3%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 47.2% 2.12 -0.6%

Draw 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

Away win 28.8% 31.7% 3.15 -5.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

BTTS 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 51.8% 1.93 -5.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.8% 2.45 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United1.7

New England Revolution1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.33

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -0.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.0%

New England Revolution (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face New England Revolution in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 47% chance, the draw 24% and New England Revolution 29%, so DC United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for DC United and 1.2 for New England Revolution (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.62 for New England Revolution. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 0-3.

DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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