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Toronto FC vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Toronto FC

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Charlotte

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.5%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.3%1-110.2%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.1%3-15.7%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 45.0% 2.22 +3.7%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Away win 29.6% 34.2% 2.92 -8.1%

Over 2.5 62.6% 58.8% 1.70 +6.4%

Over 3.5 39.2% 35.7% 2.80 +9.8%

BTTS 61.3% 63.7% 1.57 -3.8%

Home O1.5 53.2% 50.0% 2.00 +6.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 42.0% 2.38 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto FC1.8

Charlotte1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO FC · PPG 1.40

CHARLOTTE · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toronto FC (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +3.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Charlotte (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto FC face Charlotte in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Charlotte 30%, so Toronto FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Toronto FC and 1.4 for Charlotte (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto FC are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.88 for Charlotte. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Toronto FC vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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