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Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City SC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.6%0-24.5%0-33.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.1%1-18.2%1-28.1%1-35.4%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.2%2-34.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.2%3-14.3%3-24.3%3-32.8%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 37.0% 2.70 -1.5%

Draw 22.1% 25.3% 3.95 -7.6%

Away win 41.4% 44.4% 2.25 -6.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 72.5% 1.38 -7.1%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.3% 1.95 -15.2%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Away O1.5 55.2% 60.6% 1.65 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.2%

A 41% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2✓ 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City SC1.8

Chicago Fire2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 1.56

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City SC (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -1.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.6%

Chicago Fire (A) 41.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City SC face Chicago Fire in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City SC a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Chicago Fire 41%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Orlando City SC and 2.0 for Chicago Fire (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City SC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.38 for Chicago Fire. This match finished 1-2.

Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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