Today / USA - MLS / New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 109 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
A 51% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.56
NASHVILLE SC · PPG 1.67
xG gap -0.72 - moderate Away edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York Red Bulls face Nashville SC in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York Red Bulls a 25% chance, the draw 23% and Nashville SC 51%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for New York Red Bulls and 1.8 for Nashville SC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York Red Bulls are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.67 for Nashville SC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 0-1.