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Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

CF Montreal

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.2%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.6%1-19.1%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Draw 22.1% 25.3% 3.95 -7.6%

Away win 23.3% 21.7% 4.60 +4.3%

Over 2.5 62.6% 61.7% 1.62 +1.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 39.2% 2.55 +0.5%

BTTS 60.3% 62.5% 1.60 -3.5%

Home O1.5 64.9% 62.5% 1.60 +3.8%

Away O1.5 33.5% 33.9% 2.95 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–2✓ 4.8%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew2.2

CF Montreal1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.56

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.6%

CF Montreal (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face CF Montreal in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 55% chance, the draw 22% and CF Montreal 23%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Columbus Crew and 1.1 for CF Montreal (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.44 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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