Today / USA - MLS / FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 109 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 50% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%
Form & verdict
FC CINCINNATI · PPG 2.00
NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.38
xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
FC Cincinnati face New York City FC in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cincinnati a 50% chance, the draw 22% and New York City FC 29%, so FC Cincinnati are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Cincinnati and 1.7 for New York City FC (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cincinnati are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.38 for New York City FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 2-1.