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Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 20 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia Union

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Inter Miami

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.4%0-24.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.4%1-18.3%1-27.8%1-34.9%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.5%3-14.8%3-24.5%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.4%4+-23.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 41.7% 2.40 +4.2%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 34.9% 39.7% 2.52 -12.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 50.0% 2.00 -13.0%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 54.9% 57.1% 1.75 -3.9%

Away O1.5 55.2% 56.5% 1.77 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2✓ 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union1.9

Inter Miami1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 1.33

INTER MIAMI · PPG 2.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Inter Miami (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union face Inter Miami in USA - MLS on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Inter Miami 35%, so Philadelphia Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Philadelphia Union and 1.9 for Inter Miami (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.27 for Inter Miami. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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