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Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs CS Uruguay Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 01:00

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

CS Uruguay

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.4%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-111.2%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.6%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 48.8% 2.05 +7.4%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 23.3% 33.3% 3.00 -18.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Over 3.5 28.4% 34.7% 2.88 -10.9%

BTTS 51.5% 59.9% 1.67 -14.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 50.5% 1.98 -3.4%

Away O1.5 22.8% 37.9% 2.64 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.5%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC1.7

CS Uruguay0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PITBULLS SANTA BARBARA FC · PPG 1.51

CS URUGUAY · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.4%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

CS Uruguay (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC face CS Uruguay in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC a 52% chance, the draw 24% and CS Uruguay 23%, so Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC and 0.9 for CS Uruguay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.00 for CS Uruguay. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs CS Uruguay Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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