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Liège vs Francs Borains Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Liège

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Francs Borains

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.2%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.7%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 31.4% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 32.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liège1.6

Francs Borains1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LIÈGE · PPG 1.79

FRANCS BORAINS · PPG 1.01

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Liège (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Francs Borains (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liège face Francs Borains in Belgium - Challenger Pro League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liège a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Francs Borains 24%, so Liège are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Liège and 1.0 for Francs Borains (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liège are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.01 for Francs Borains. This match finished 1-2.

Liège vs Francs Borains Prediction— Belgium - Challenger Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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