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AD Cofutpa vs ADR Jicaral Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 00:00

AD Cofutpa

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

ADR Jicaral

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.0%0-27.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.6%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 19.6% 5.10 +67.8%

Draw 27.1% 27.4% 3.65 -0.7%

Away win 40.0% 65.4% 1.53 -38.8%

Over 2.5 50.1% 57.8% 1.73 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 37.2% 2.69 -14.6%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 27.9% 3.58 +14.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 61.3% 1.63 -39.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1✓ 11.0%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AD Cofutpa1.2

ADR Jicaral1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AD COFUTPA · PPG 1.52

ADR JICARAL · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AD Cofutpa (H) 32.9%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +67.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.7%

ADR Jicaral (A) 40.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -38.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AD Cofutpa face ADR Jicaral in Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AD Cofutpa a 33% chance, the draw 27% and ADR Jicaral 40%, so ADR Jicaral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for AD Cofutpa and 1.3 for ADR Jicaral (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AD Cofutpa are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.69 for ADR Jicaral. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.2%. This match finished 0-1.

AD Cofutpa vs ADR Jicaral Prediction— Costa-Rica - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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