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Atlético Tucumán Res. vs River Plate Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 20:00

Atlético Tucumán Res.

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

River Plate Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-112.3%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% — — —

Draw 31.5% — — —

Away win 31.5% — — —

Over 2.5 42.7% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 33.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -2.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tucumán Res.1.1

River Plate Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TUCUMÁN RES. · PPG 1.73

RIVER PLATE RES. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tucumán Res. (H) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

River Plate Res. (A) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tucumán Res. face River Plate Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tucumán Res. a 37% chance, the draw 32% and River Plate Res. 32%, so Atlético Tucumán Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.1 for River Plate Res. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tucumán Res. are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.50 for River Plate Res..

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs River Plate Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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