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Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Lanús Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 18:00

Newell's Old Boys Res.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lanús Res.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.7%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.4%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -2.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newell's Old Boys Res.1.7

Lanús Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES. · PPG 2.50

LANÚS RES. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newell's Old Boys Res. (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lanús Res. (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Newell's Old Boys Res. face Lanús Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newell's Old Boys Res. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Lanús Res. 24%, so Newell's Old Boys Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newell's Old Boys Res. and 1.1 for Lanús Res. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newell's Old Boys Res. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Lanús Res..

Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Lanús Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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