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Sogndal II vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 8 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 17:00

Sogndal II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Varegg

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.9%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.5%1-17.2%1-24.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.6%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-18.6%4+-25.7%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 44.4% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 40.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal II2.5

Varegg1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL II · PPG 1.00

VAREGG · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal II (H) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varegg (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal II face Varegg in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal II a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Varegg 24%, so Sogndal II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sogndal II and 1.3 for Varegg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Varegg.

Sogndal II vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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