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Stord vs Åsane II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Stord

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Åsane II

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.8%0-24.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.4%1-19.0%1-27.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.2%3-15.3%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 34.0% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stord1.9

Åsane II1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STORD · PPG 0.57

ÅSANE II · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stord (H) 44.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Åsane II (A) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stord face Åsane II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stord a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Åsane II 34%, so Stord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stord and 1.7 for Åsane II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stord are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.25 for Åsane II.

Stord vs Åsane II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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