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Nosaby vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland · Matchday 14 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:30

Nosaby

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-17.1%0-25.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.0%1-111.2%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.3%3-14.7%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 31.6% — — —

Over 2.5 62.5% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 46.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -11.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nosaby1.6

IFK Trelleborg1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOSABY · PPG 2.00

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nosaby (H) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

IFK Trelleborg (A) 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nosaby face IFK Trelleborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nosaby a 45% chance, the draw 24% and IFK Trelleborg 32%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nosaby and 1.4 for IFK Trelleborg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nosaby are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.38 for IFK Trelleborg.

Nosaby vs IFK Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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