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Uribelarrea vs Ezeiza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 15 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:00

Uribelarrea

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ezeiza

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.1%0-113.8%0-24.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.7%2-15.2%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% — — —

Draw 33.7% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 14.5% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.1%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uribelarrea0.9

Ezeiza0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

URIBELARREA · PPG 1.67

EZEIZA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 1.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uribelarrea (H) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ezeiza (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Uribelarrea face Ezeiza in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uribelarrea a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Ezeiza 27%, so Uribelarrea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Uribelarrea and 0.6 for Ezeiza (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uribelarrea are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.60 for Ezeiza.

Uribelarrea vs Ezeiza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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