Today / Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur / Defensores Glew vs Estrella de Berisso

Defensores Glew vs Estrella de Berisso Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 11 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Defensores Glew

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estrella de Berisso

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.4%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.0%1-16.5%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-18.9%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.7%3-18.1%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-110.8%4+-25.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 15.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 25.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 68% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores Glew2.7

Estrella de Berisso0.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES GLEW · PPG 2.40

ESTRELLA DE BERISSO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Defensores Glew (H) 68.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Estrella de Berisso (A) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores Glew face Estrella de Berisso in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores Glew a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Estrella de Berisso 15%, so Defensores Glew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Defensores Glew and 0.9 for Estrella de Berisso (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores Glew are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Estrella de Berisso.

Defensores Glew vs Estrella de Berisso Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur Predictions