Today / Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur / Belgrano Zarate vs Barrancas UMET

Belgrano Zarate vs Barrancas UMET Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Belgrano Zarate logo
Belgrano Zarate
PPG 1.50 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Barrancas UMET logo
Barrancas UMET
PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.3%0-120.5%0-26.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-110.6%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.0%2-12.7%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.7%3-10.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 28.4%
Draw 37.2%
Away win 34.4%
Over 2.5 31.4%
Over 3.5 13.1%
BTTS 44.6%
Home O1.5 29.5%
Away O1.5 17.2%

League track record

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%
O2.5 60%
BTTS 68%
Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

D 37% / xG 0.5-0.7 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.3%
#2 0–1 20.5%
#3 1–0 15.7%
#4 1–1 10.6%
#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Zarate0.5
Barrancas UMET0.7

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO ZARATE · PPG 1.50

BARRANCAS UMET · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...
45%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 1.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Zarate (H) 28.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 37.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Barrancas UMET (A) 34.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Zarate face Barrancas UMET in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Zarate a 28% chance, the draw 37% and Barrancas UMET 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for Belgrano Zarate and 0.7 for Barrancas UMET (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Zarate are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Barrancas UMET.

PredictVantage

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