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Alumni Los Hornos vs Everton La Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Alumni Los Hornos

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Everton La Plata

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-112.8%0-24.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.1%2-16.4%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alumni Los Hornos1.0

Everton La Plata0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMNI LOS HORNOS · PPG 1.17

EVERTON LA PLATA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 1.70 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alumni Los Hornos (H) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Everton La Plata (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alumni Los Hornos face Everton La Plata in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alumni Los Hornos a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Everton La Plata 24%, so Alumni Los Hornos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Alumni Los Hornos and 0.7 for Everton La Plata (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alumni Los Hornos are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Everton La Plata.

Alumni Los Hornos vs Everton La Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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