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Atletico Pilar vs Provincial Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Pilar

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Provincial

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.6%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.9%1-19.4%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.7%3-16.4%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 41.6% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Pilar2.0

Provincial1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO PILAR · PPG 0.80

PROVINCIAL · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Pilar (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Provincial (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Pilar face Provincial in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Pilar a 51% chance, the draw 23% and Provincial 27%, so Atletico Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico Pilar and 1.4 for Provincial (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Pilar are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.60 for Provincial.

Atletico Pilar vs Provincial Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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