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Palestino vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 00:30

Palestino

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huachipato

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.2%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.2%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.4%3-16.5%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 56.2% 1.78 -1.4%

Draw 22.5% 27.4% 3.65 -10.7%

Away win 22.1% 25.6% 3.90 -8.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 58.8% 1.70 +1.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

BTTS 54.5% 61.7% 1.62 -11.7%

Home O1.5 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Away O1.5 31.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palestino2.0

Huachipato1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PALESTINO · PPG 2.00

HUACHIPATO · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palestino (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV -1.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.7%

Huachipato (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palestino face Huachipato in Chile - Primera División on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palestino a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Huachipato 22%, so Palestino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Palestino and 1.0 for Huachipato (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palestino are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Huachipato. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%.

Palestino vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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